A recent US study indicates that there is little evidence of generative artificial intelligence causing widespread job losses or severely disrupting the labor market. Claire Jones and Melissa Heikkilä report for the Financial Times that the research was conducted by economists at the Yale University Budget Lab and the Brookings Institution. The analysis suggests that since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, AI’s impact on employment has not been more dramatic than that of earlier technologies like the internet.
According to the study, the US labor market has shown more continuity than change. Co-author Molly Kinder described the situation as mostly stable and “not an economy-wide jobs apocalypse”. Martha Gimbel, another co-author, added that despite a weak perception of the labor market, the researchers could find no signs that AI is taking people’s jobs. While AI is changing the mix of tech occupations, it is not rapidly altering the composition of jobs throughout the wider economy.
These findings contradict assertions from some technology executives who claim AI is already reshaping the workforce. For example, the CEOs of Anthropic and OpenAI have warned of the mass elimination of roles. Many economists, however, believe such claims are currently exaggerated. Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu stated that many companies are not yet using the technology in highly creative ways and that AI firms have an incentive to create hype. The researchers intend to update their data monthly to continue monitoring the situation.