Stanford study finds widening AI impact on entry-level jobs

Young workers in occupations most exposed to AI are seeing substantially weaker employment prospects, while older employees have so far been largely spared, according to updated research from Stanford economists.

Kyle Orland reports for Ars Technica that the researchers identify a widening gap for workers aged 22 to 25. Employment in the most AI exposed occupations is now 19 percent below that of comparable workers in less exposed fields. The gap was 13 percent in the previous edition of the study.

The paper, titled Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence, draws on anonymized payroll data collected by HR company ADP. The researchers combine this data with measures of an occupation’s potential exposure to AI and with Anthropic’s Economic Index, which tracks how people use Claude across different types of work.

Across the overall workforce, the team finds little difference in employment between highly exposed and less exposed occupations. The pattern changes sharply for younger employees. Since 2022, employment among 22 to 25 year olds fell about 11 percent in the 40 percent of jobs most affected by AI. It rose 10 percent in the 60 percent of jobs with the lowest AI impact.

Hiring is the main pressure point

The decline appears to result mainly from reduced entry-level hiring, not from more dismissals or voluntary departures. The researchers also find that the effect is more visible in the number of jobs than in pay levels.

AI use matters. Occupations where AI performs tasks that would otherwise be done by people show the clearest decline in entry-level employment. Roles where AI primarily supports workers show mixed outcomes. The study describes this as a difference between automation, which substitutes for labour, and augmentation, which helps people work more effectively.

The findings also point to risk in jobs built around formal, documented knowledge. Work requiring more practical experience and mentoring appears less vulnerable for established employees. A university degree may soften the employment gap, though the researchers do not present it as a complete safeguard. Lead researcher Erik Brynjolfsson warns that the labour market could retain overall employment while offering fewer ways for newcomers to begin careers.