Geoffrey Hinton, often called the “Godfather of AI,” has predicted that artificial general intelligence (AGI) capable of taking over from humans could arrive within the next two decades. In an extensive interview with CBS, Hinton estimated a “10 to 20% chance that these things will take over,” potentially occurring “between four and 19 years from now.”
Hinton, a recent Nobel Prize winner in physics, emphasized that AI has developed faster than he anticipated. He expressed particular concern about AI agents that can “do things in the world,” which he considers more dangerous than systems that merely answer questions.
The renowned AI researcher pointed to several positive potential outcomes if AGI development proceeds safely, including revolutionary improvements in healthcare, education, and addressing climate change. “In healthcare, AI will be much better at reading medical images,” Hinton explained, adding that AI could function as superior family doctors with experience from “millions of X-rays” and knowledge of rare conditions.
Despite these benefits, Hinton warned of serious risks. He criticized major AI companies for prioritizing profits over safety, noting that they are “lobbying to get less AI regulation.” He expressed disappointment with Google’s decision to support military applications of AI and voiced concerns about OpenAI’s shift away from its original safety-focused mission.
Hinton strongly opposed the release of AI model weights by companies like Meta and OpenAI. He compared this practice to selling fissile material used in nuclear weapons: “Once you release the weights, you’ve got rid of the main barrier to using these things.”
On the issue of job displacement, Hinton has changed his position since earlier interviews. “AI’s got so much better in the last few years that if I had a job in a call center I’d be very worried,” he said, extending his concern to routine jobs in legal, journalism, and accounting fields.
Hinton explained that his growing concern about AI emerged during his time at Google, where he realized digital AI models have a fundamental advantage over humans in sharing information. “These large language models running on digital systems can communicate trillions of bits a second. So they’re billions of times better than us at sharing information. That got me scared.”
As a practical response to his concerns, Hinton mentioned spreading his financial assets across multiple banks to protect against potential AI-enabled cyber attacks.
He concluded that public awareness and pressure on governments will be crucial for ensuring safer AI development. “If the public realized what was happening, they will put a lot of pressure on governments to insist that the AI companies develop this more safely,” Hinton stated.